EDMONTON — Alberta has surpassed the United States in confirmed measles cases, after 30 new cases were diagnosed over the weekend.
The province reported Monday that it has seen 1,314 cases since the beginning of March.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has reported 1,288 cases so far this year across 39 states, though case numbers are updated weekly with the next update expected on Wednesday.
The outbreak of the highly contagious disease hasn't led to any deaths so far in Alberta, but three people, including two children, have died in the United States.
The U.S. has also seen more hospitalizations, with the CDC reporting 162 people, or 13 per cent of all cases, being hospitalized compared to 102 Albertans as of earlier this month.
Alberta's measles dashboard says two people are currently in hospital, including one person receiving intensive care.
Dr. Craig Jenne, an immunology and infectious disease professor at the University of Calgary, says once measles started spreading at the community level, Alberta's low vaccination rate meant it was only a matter of time before the province surpassed the U.S. in cases.
"This was largely predictable," he said in an interview.
"It was pretty clear we were going to see growth, unfortunately, for several weeks to months."
Jenne said the speed at which measles has and continues to spread in Alberta is concerning. Last week, Alberta reached the highest per capita infection rate in North America, despite outbreaks in other jurisdictions like Ontario or Texas starting months earlier than in Alberta.
"It really is spreading quite easily here," Jenne said.
"And we've not yet seen significant mitigation of the spread that perhaps some other jurisdictions have been able to manage."
Dr. Lynora Saxinger, an infectious diseases specialist with the University of Alberta, said she expects Alberta's situation to get worse before it gets any better.
"It's absolutely appalling and it shouldn't really happen, but it is where we are," Saxinger said.
"This whole thing is just really not where I thought we'd be in 2025."
Both Jenne and Saxinger said the actual number of cases on either side of the border is likely much higher than what's been confirmed.
"We have to remember that those are really the minimum number," Jenne said.
"If kids don't require medical treatment, if they don't require hospitalization, there's a really good chance that they'll just be treated at home and they're not seen by a doctor and therefore they're not counted."
Saxinger said the undercounting of cases might be especially true in the U.S., given more severe outcomes like deaths have been reported.
She noted that it's expected for every 1,000 cases, one to three people will die.
"Quite a large number -- maybe even as many as one in five -- will get a bacterial infection after measles," she said.
"That's not nothing, that's a big deal."
Opposition NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi said the United Conservative government should step up public health awareness efforts before Alberta starts seeing its own severe outcomes.
"In a time where we have a massive public health outbreak, we are seeing absolute silence from this government," Nenshi said.
"This is absolute dereliction of duty and it has very real consequences on children who are getting very, very ill."
Preventative Health Services Minister Adriana LaGrange's office did not immediately respond to questions Monday.
Saxinger also said she thought recent actions taken by U.S. President Donald Trump could be undermining the trustworthiness of U.S. data.
In March, the Trump administration moved to cut more than US$11 billion in public health funding across dozens of states, though in May a federal judge granted an injunction to block the cuts after 23 states filed a lawsuit.
"I'm not sure ... the data infrastructure is as reliable as it used to be," Saxinger said about the United States.
"When you introduce a lot of chaos and disruption into a system that really relies on an organizational structure to make things happen properly, there's going to be problems."
The two professors said it's unlikely Alberta or other provinces dealing with measles outbreaks will be able to get transmission under control before the fall, which is when Canada could lose its long-held measles eradication status.
Jenne said losing the status might not mean much for many Albertans when it comes to day-to-day life, though it could mean other countries might implement travel recommendations and vaccine requirements for those visiting Canada.
"Those things can impact things as far-ranging as tourism to amateur sport visits to even business meetings if Canada is seen as an infection risk to other countries' populations," he said.
"This is something we really need to avoid, but it is not looking very likely that we will be able to avoid it, at least in the short term."
This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 14, 2025.
Jack Farrell, The Canadian Press
