ATHABASCA — Cyclical patterns can be seen in many different aspects of the world around us: the El Niño effect, which occurs every two to seven years, is an example of a natural cycle that’s garnered provincial, national, and global attention this winter. Another example is the sun’s magnetic field’s 11-year cycle, also known as the solar cycle.
Like El Niño, the solar cycle is currently at a stage in its pattern that is palpable to humans. Whereas El Niño has brought warm temperatures and little precipitation over the winter months, the cycle is bringing incredible skies to more and more in North America as it nears its peak, or maximum.
But Dr. Martin Connors, professor of astronomy, mathematics, and physics at Athabasca University (AU), said in a recent opinion piece published on AU’s The Hub that the solar maximum brings more than breath-taking shows of dancing colours in the night sky; it can also bring with it greater chances for disruptions in human technology.
“Four or five years ago, you’d hardly see any auroras, and now you will see them quite frequently,” said Connors. According to the National Weather Service, the last sun cycle — also known as Solar Cycle 24 — took place between 2008 and 2019 and was the weakest cycle in 100 years since records began in 1755.
Solar Cycle 25 was predicted to be of similar strength to that of 24, but Connors’s article notes, “we have already exceeded predicted numbers of sunspots and had large magnetic storms, so predictions may need to be revised upward.”
The peak for Solar Cycle 25 was initially predicted to occur between December 2024 and March 2026. “That maximum as we call it, is coming up. There’s been a little bit of revisions as I mentioned in my piece about when exactly it’ll happen, but it looks like it’s going to be earlier and possibly higher than originally predicted,” said Connors.
More activity, more auroras
Connors has been involved with AU since 1988, when he began a role as a tutor. He joined the faculty in 1996, marking 28 years of teaching at the University. As for his interest in auroras, he said it goes back even further.
“I started working on that in the early ‘80’s — I guess that’s in a serious way 40 years ago,” said Connors. “I got into it in a sort of second-hand way because I’d had a long-standing interest in astronomy since I was a child, and that's a bit higher up, that’s planets and stars, whereas auroras are basically high in our own atmosphere.
He started exploring answers to his questions during his time at the University of Alberta, which he said, “Didn’t have a very strong astronomy group, but it did have a very strong aurora and space physics, is what we call it, group.”
Based out of Edmonton, Connors said he’s driven more miles on Highway 2 than it would take to get to the moon since he started teaching with AU, and he recommends anyone in search of spectacular northern lights views take a page from his book.
“The very brightest auroras you will see from a city, but to get a better view of a really bright aurora or to see a fainter aurora, you need a very dark sky, and luckily that’s fairly easily done in Alberta,” he said. “People with smaller communities in northern Alberta have a great chance to see auroras.”
The science behind auroras boils down to magnetism: solar activity can result in what is known as solar wind, streams of electrically charged particles that, when come into contact with earth’s magnetic field, can create instability and react with atmospheric particles. This reaction is what we see when auroras light up the night sky.
“Basically, the sky is glowing in your face, and to me that’s always kind of amazing,” said Connors. “The night sky, instead of being dark, is glowing at you and jumping around, and auroras are quite beautiful.”
And with the peak of Solar Cycle 25 nearing, more people will be able to see the phenomenon for themselves. Greater frequency of solar activity and solar storms synonymous with the maximum can expand the auroral zone, which is typically between 60 and 75 degrees latitude.
Effect on human tech
But Connors said with the increased solar activity and beautiful night skies comes an increased risk of technological disturbances. The most well-known example of technical disturbance from sun activity is likely the Carrington Event, a historical geomagnetic event resulting from a solar storm in 1859.
Following a major coronal mass ejection from the sun, dazzling auroras could be seen as far as the tropics — far from the typical auroral zones — accompanied by a mass disruption of the global telegraph system. Reports from the event describe telegraph operators being subjected to electric shock, telegraph machines spraying sparks, and accidental blazes from the surge in electricity.
The Carrington Event, which allowed astronomers to connect solar activity with auroral and magnetic effects, took place months before the maximum of Solar Cycle 10. But despite the similarities between the circumstances of the Carrington Event and our own position in the solar cycle, Connors said it’s not likely an event with the same scale will occur in the near future.
“We don't realistically expect to get the Carrington Event again soon. There are ways to figure out indirectly how often events like that happen, and it turns out they’re not super common,” said Connors. However, he added, “We will get storms that could affect technology in probably a smaller way.
“For example, airplanes flying above the North Pole can have their communication affected, and that’s of course a serious problem. People in the airplanes can get more radiation,” too, which can be a problem for frequent fliers such as the pilots, said Connors.
“There are numerous different effects,” he added. “Satellites themselves that are in space can be affected by the radiation belts. The Fantastic Four comic was based on cosmic radiation — well, that does happen, but it doesn’t make you in superheroes, it just burns out electronics in spacecraft.”
Less common, but most applicable to those of us who aren’t astronauts, is the effect auroras can have on power grids. “People may have heard that polar explorers have problems with their compasses during auroras, and they may have also thought, ‘Well, that sounds so weird that it’s probably not true.
“It is actually true,” said Connors. “A changing magnetic field that would make your compass wander a bit actually makes an electric effect, and that electric effect is different from what power grids are built for. As a result, it can badly affect them, it can effectively shorten them out.”
One example of this occurred in 1989 in Quebec. Connors said the province was particularly vulnerable because of the length of the power grids — with much of Quebec’s energy generated in the north, power has a long way to travel along the grid before it reaches its destination. Another element in Quebec’s vulnerability is its type of rock — a factor Alberta doesn’t have to contend with.
“We have sedimentary rocks here, and they generally actually conduct electricity pretty well, so it can’t build up, it's sort of like static electricity in the winter. The reason you get static electricity is just because the air is very dry and doesn't carry it away, and then you touch a doorknob and zap!” said Connors.
“Over there, their rocks are very electrically insulating, and so the electrical effect can actually build up and then discharge similar to a spark that you’d get when you walk across a rug in the winter.”
And while major power outages and events similar to the Carrington Event are unlikely as we approach Solar Cycle 25’s maximum, Connors said the experts are using data about the sun’s activity to inform preventative measures.
“A Carrington Event happening tomorrow would be a major world catastrophe. But again, I stress we don’t want to scare people, this is not likely and we are hardening up our systems, we’re more aware of things. Not terribly likely, but possible.
“Nobody should be awake at night worrying about it, but it could happen,” said Connors.
