Albertans will head to the polling booths on Tuesday, May 5, after premier Jim Prentice called an election last week.
The vote will be preceded by a month of campaigning that will see politicians and political hopefuls crisscrossing their ridings and the province.
A controversial budget, a government wary of pain at the ballot box and the rise and fall of the Wildrose are all set to be campaign issues, according to Dr. Jay Smith, head of political science at Athabasca University.
“I think they really thought that they really slain Wildrose,” he said. “But he [Prentice] might be ruing it right now as Wildrose might be more resilient than anybody thought.
“If they can solidify themselves and look strong, we’ve got a really competitive election.”
Locally, things in the Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock riding could get interesting.
Currently there are three confirmed contenders — PC incumbent Maureen Kubinec, the Wildrose’s Glenn van Dijken and Tristan Turner from the NDP. Other potential candidates have until April 17 to declare.
At the last election in 2012, Kubinec edged out Wildrose founding member, the late Link Byfield, by just over 300 votes. Smith doesn’t think being a sitting member will help her this time round.
“I don’t think incumbency counts that much now,” he said.
“I think there is enough unhappiness in the rural areas that elections can still be very close.
“I don’t think anyone in the rural areas is going to win in a cake walk”.
Across the province Smith can see the election going one of two ways.
One option is fewer voters head to the ballot box due to distrust of the major parties and their failure to differentiate themselves from each other.
“I think after the Wildrose fiasco, which has tainted both Conservatives and the Wildrose, that people just say ‘a pox on all your houses’,” Smith said. “So you might have a very low turn-out.”
Smith’s other suggestion is that a depressed economy and sluggish growth can cause electors to cast their votes in greater number in an attempt to deal with the problems.
“When the economy has soured a bit, when oil prices have gone down, you have a much more competitive election,” he said. “When the election becomes more competitive, it tends to drive voter turn-out upward.
“So if you have a perception that the election is going to be competitive it could counteract that ‘pox on all your houses, I’m not going to have anything to do with politicians and politics.’”
Should that happen Smith, says there’s a chance the makeup on the next Legislature could be very interesting.
“Let’s say the Wildrose actually holds its support, and [party leader] Brian Jean comes across as a good, effective leader, then you might well have the Wildrose on 20 to 25 seats,” he said.
“You could have the NDP over 20 seats. What do you have then? You’re getting into minority territory.”
Prentice called the highly anticipated election at a special press event on Tuesday, April 7.
During the announcement he said that he and his ruling PC government needed the reaffirmation of voters for its contentious budget and other policies.
“Our government has put forward a 10-year plan and Albertans now need the opportunity to judge the plan,” Prentice said.
“They deserve the opportunity to compare the direction we would take this province to what others propose, and I am asking Albertans for a mandate to implement the changes this province needs so badly.”
However, Smith also thinks the PCs have gone to the poll early as they fear what might happen if they left it any longer.
“I think there’s a perception things are going to get worse,” he said.
“If the economy and housing prices fall, they have to go back next year and cut even more out of educational systems, the healthcare system … you’re going to see the political temperature rising.”
The announcement of the poll goes against the government’s 2011 Election Amendment Act that legislated fixed electoral cycles and should have meant the earliest a poll could take place was March 1, 2016.
“If you look at the law there’s enough of a loophole to drive a truck through,” said Smith.
Any party, or coalition of parties, hoping to form government needs to win 44 of the 87 seats up for grabs.
In 2012, the ruling Progressive Conservatives won 61 of the available seats with Wildrose capturing 17 and the Liberals and NDP spitting the remainder.
By the time the term ended, 11 Wildrose members had defected to the government in a move that decapitated the Legislature’s main opposition.
On April 22, at noon, upstairs at the Westlock Legion Hall, an all-candidates forum will take place. The public are invited and encouraged to stop by and meet the people who want to represent them.
Voting in the Tuesday, May 5 election is open to any Canadian citizen who has lived in the province for more than six months before the polling day.
Those not on the list of electors can register online via the Elections Alberta website. They’ll need a form of identification, like a driver’s licence or Alberta ID card, when you vote.
Once on the list voting can be done in a number of ways, like casting your ballot in person at any number of polling places.
Those not in their home riding on the day of the vote you can attend an early polling station, which will be open from Wednesday, April 29 to Saturday, May 2.
Those who cannot make it in person can apply for a special ballot, which is essentially a postal vote.
People wishing to nominate as candidates for the election have until 2 p.m. on Friday, April 17 to get their paperwork into Elections Alberta.
