The weather forecast for the Westlock area over the next three months is warmer and wetter than average, according to Environment Canada.
That prediction comes with a kicker; day-to-day changes affect the modeling and there’s only a one-in-three chance it will turn out that way.
“We say we don’t show any skill in this until we have a better than 40 per cent confidence in our predication, and we are right on 40 per cent,” said Dan Kulak, meteorologist at Environment Canada’s Edmonton office.
The three-month forecast comes after some variable weather over the past few weeks.
While more recently it’s been winter snow, January had an average daytime high of -5.5 C, a warmest day of 8 C and significant rain in some areas.
“Rain in the middle and latter part of January is something that does happen but the amounts of rain we were getting even surprised me,” Kulak said.
The freezing rain caused a number of accidents across Westlock, including the Jan. 27 crash that sent four people to hospital.
The weather in Alberta, and Westlock, is currently being affected by a weak El Nińo weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean which goes some way to explaining the warmer and wetter than average precipitation.
It’s not clear how long the El Nińo will go for or if it will have a significant impact on the rest of the year.
While on average January and February are dryer than other times, Environment Canada is warning people not to be complacent.
As last week showed, there is still the possibility of significant amounts of snow.
“The warmer weather we have had gives a nice respite if you don’t like winter but you have to think as we move into March and April, the systems with snow actually become more common”, he said.
