Spring wasn't as warm and dry as the forecasts were saying.
Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) said a warmer and drier spring with my own forecast predicting the opposite of what they were saying.
I will give the ECCC 30 per cent accuracy and The Weather Network a 45 per cent accuracy. I give my own forecast 85 per cent accuracy. Why were all the major weather and climate websites and networks so badly off?
The major flaw in how they predict their forecast is that it only relies on their weather models, nothing more.
The climate forecast system (CFS) models are not very reliable.
Why don't they change their ways of predicting the weather?
I rely on the analogue years and the anti-log years (both represent years are similar and completely different)
My overall results are 85 per cent accurate with having less fire season. It was much wetter and cooler than anticipated March and April was quite snowy at times but above normal temperatures in April.
Overall, the spring was wetter and near normal for temperatures.
What can we expect for summer 2024? The summer as a whole will be significantly wetter and cooler, with June being the warmest and stormiest month.
For July and August, expect even wetter and cooler temperatures with a possible earlier fall starting in the last week of August.
The fire season will be slow and won't be that active at all.
So, what do we expect for severe weather? We can expect lots of very strong winds and large hail. Tornadoes will be very active, and flash floods.
There will likely be very large hail and damaging winds.
We also will see swelling rivers and localized flooding with occasionally widespread localized flooding.
The farmers' fields have a threat of flood and water pooling.
Where is the heat and why is it going to be so cool and rainier?
Well there are three reasons why the heat will not bring us nice hot weather and sunshine.
One, the heat dome, as you already heard of will be in the southeastern United States and Canada.
The second factor will be strong and rapidly developing La Nina and colder PDO (Pacific Decadal oscillation) when we have colder than normal waters, bringing cooler and wetter weather in the western half of Canada.
The third reason is the active storm track.
What is the storm track? That is easily explained as where the storms are more common than normal.
The last thing is the fire smoke. There will be lots of smoky days. The answer is somewhat that forest fires will be very common in the eastern half of Canada. So, when the winds are coming from the east, expect smoky conditions and the eastern half of Canada could not only be active for fire season but also have dangerous heat due to the heat dome
Enjoy the weather, it is the only weather you've got.
