Recap on the summer: I was quite wrong for this past summer. It turned up much hotter and drier than I forecast.
Why? All thinks to the ridging of high pressure from the pacific bringing a lot of heat and heat domes, and the slow development of the La Niña. If the La Niña had begun in June, I would be quite right.
Overall I was less than 65 per cent accurate. Why not less than that? Because June was the coolest and one of the wettest – it even snowed in June in Fort McKay. My whole forecast was blown out of the water as they say July was the hottest month of the season and June the coolest by far with August being in between. The wettest month was June by far, and the driest month was July.
What to expect this coming fall: overall it's going to be nice and hot to start but only for the first half of the month of September. The last week and a half of September, it will be cool to chilly at times.
October will be similar but much more on the cold side. Regarding the month of October, I’m expecting earlier snowfall that will stay on the ground for the second or third week of October, and there will be snowfall for thanksgiving. Overall, September will round up to 2 degrees above the typical month, with rainfall and other precipitation running slightly above normal. The month of October will be 1 degree cooler than the normal mark with snowfall and other precipitation being quite above typical norms.
The last month of fall will be much colder than normal risks of seeing mid to high -30s with a slight risk of -40 happening by the end of the month.
Overall, November will be 3 degrees below the typical month, and snowfall will be above normal — and far above normal for the foothills due to up sloping.
Fall will be near normal or 0.5 degrees below normal, with higher-than-average precipitation.
Enjoy the weather – it's the only weather you got.
Jed Laidlaw is a local amateur meteorologist from the Athabasca area.
